Showing 20 results for yavari
Volume 0, Issue 0 (Articles accepted for Publication 2024)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Measurement and examination of unobservable variables directly such as inflation expectations or potential output, is really challenging. Inflation expectations have been considered a key variable in many macroeconomic models, particularly in the realm of monetary economics. Macroeconomic models assume that economic agents make consumption, savings, and labor market decisions based on their perception of future inflation levels, and these decisions play a great role in realizing economic variables, including inflation. The role of inflation expectations differs from other inflation-generating factors. While factors such as money supply, budget deficit, exchange rate, and to some extent, economic sanctions can be considered as policy tools. Inflation expectations normally result from the interaction of other factors and may potentially predict future inflation. For example, an increase in the budget deficit, if not addressed independently by the Central Bank, can lead to an increase in money supply, inflation, and intensification of inflation expectations. Thus, inflation expectations can be considered as a variable that evolves within society and changes due to other inflation-generating factors. However, once formed, these expectations themselves become significant factors in inflation and other economic variables. Unlike many countries, in Iran, despite the importance of inflation due to decades of double-digit inflation, no action has been taken to produce and provide survey data related to this variable. However, according to existing literature, comparing the results of alternative methods incorporating inflation expectations with survey data can provide valuable insights. In practice, incorporating inflation expectations can improve the performance of inflation prediction models.
Methodology
Empirical research indicates that methods that consider inflation expectations along with its fluctuations and dynamics outperform models that do not consider these dynamics. Therefore, paying proper attention to how inflation expectations form and fluctuate, as well as avoiding simple methods, is necessary in calculating inflation expectations. In this research, an attempt was made to calculate and present data related to this variable in the framework of rational expectations for the period of 1996 to 2021 using the random forest regression method, considering the strengths and weaknesses of each method of mapping inflation expectations. Subsequently, after learning the random forest-based model, by conducting an in-sample prediction, the data were extracted and the features related to rational expectations regarding these data were examined.
Findings
The coefficient of determination value for the test data was found to be 80%, indicating that, on average, 80% of inflation variations are correctly predicted by economic factors using the model inputs or features. Based on this and by examining the features related to estimation residuals, it was determined that economic factors in predicting inflation do not exhibit systematic errors and, with a sufficiently large time interval and having an adequate information set, can have a proper understanding of inflation behavior. Moreover, the results of comparing inflation expectations based on random forest regression-based predictions show superiority of this approach compared to competing methods such as the Hodrick-Prescott filter. After that, the importance of each of the factors in the basket of information related to inflation expectations was ranked. It should be noted that the selection of features for predicting inflation expectations was not based on the direct attention of households and economic factors to these features. Rather, economic factors and households may find the effect of these features in other evidence. For example, the effect of an increase in the exchange rate on the prices of goods that are somehow related to this variable may be apparent to households, and fundamentally, the prevalent interpretation of rational expectations in the literature of this field is based on this approach. The results of this ranking indicate that among the entire information set, factors such as inflation breaks, exchange rates, and economic sanctions had the highest importance in shaping inflation expectations.
Discussion and Conclusion
It is worth mentioning that inflation breaks have been identified as the most important factor among the entire information set as a manifestation of the adaptive section of inflation expectations. However, this does not mean that expectations are entirely adaptive. Based on the research findings, it is clear that if economic factors rely solely on the adaptive section to predict inflation, zero estimation error, unpredictability of errors, and consequently the formation of rational expectations will not be achieved. Using a combination of three approaches: gradient boosting algorithm, random forest algorithm, and linear regression, a voting regression was also performed, showing a 3% improvement in determination coefficient compared to random forest (83%). Moreover, other results, such as the order and intensity of feature importance, and predicted inflation values, are similar to the random forest method with slight variations which means, estimating rational expectations is reliable
Hadi yavari,
Volume 1, Issue 4 (winter 2008)
Abstract
Formula is a structural element of popular romances. This essay analyzes the situation of this element in the romance of Amir Arsalan. First, the concept of formula in the field of oral composition is defined; then functional arrangement of formulas is presented (formulas construct linear process of the story, shape the space of the story and dialogical formulas); afterward, through analyzing the subset of this three major groups, qualitative and quantitative effects of the factors such as literary tradition, naqqali's (storytelling) tradition, naqqal (the storyteller), addressee, writer, social setting and other factors depending on this romance have been demonstrated. It should be pointed out that among the above factors the influence of epic and lyric text and artistic prose, domination of metaphorical pole of language and poetic quality of the text and sensible effect of the addressee and the writer of romance (Naser al-din shah and Fakhr al-dowleh) on the process of creating the romance have been also influential.
Volume 2, Issue 1 (6-2013)
Abstract
Accumulation of heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Fe, Z, Ni, Cu) in gill, liverrnand muscle of 30 individuals of greater lizardfish (Saurida tumbil), collectedrnfrom Hendijan fishing area in April 2012, was assessed. Metals werernextracted by digestion method and their levels were measured by atomicrnabsorption spectrophotometr (AAS- model GBC Savanta AA ). Levels ofrnthe heavy metals from maximal to minimal were Fe>Zn>Cu>Ni>Pb>Cd.rnMean of heavy metals accumulation in gill, liver and muscle werernsignificantly different (P
Hadi yavari,
Volume 2, Issue 5 (Spring 2009)
Abstract
Volume 6, Issue 19 (5-2018)
Abstract
In this study Zarryn malk to Naqyb almmalk authenticity of the text and its relationship to the Qajar examined and evaluated. For this purpose, fotmula shared form between the text and two other works Naqyb almmalk, the Amir Arsalan and Malek jamshyd extracted and assessed. Although formula, joint actions narrative in classical texts, but considering how the use of different forms of rhetorical distinction, can play an important role in determining personal style and knowledge of the creator. Formula common eight groups of three texts in this study statements formula the beginning, end, descriptive, Among - text, similes, swear, curse and prayer is segmentation. In addition Formula, other common patterns matched three texts, in three verses, names and common spells have been studied. According to the same frequency patterns and same Formula, can be manuscript Zarryn malk text from Nqyb almmalk, story-tellers knew Naseral - Din Shah Qajar court.
Volume 8, Issue 1 (0-2008)
Abstract
We present a detailed analysis of the static tuning characteristics of three section tunable distributed Bragg reflector (DBR) laser. The analysis is based on the transfer matrix method (TMM), transmission line and scattering theory. The key feature of the analysis is the use of modified oscillation condition. With the exact oscillation condition, the static tuning characteristics such as threshold current, output power, oscillating wavelength are obtained and the effects of a discontinuity at the active-passive interface and also the manufacturing imperfections on the device characteristics are investigated
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2010)
Abstract
Governments of developing countries typically spend between 15 and 30 percent of GDP. Hence, small changes in the efficiency of public spending could have a major impact on GDP and on the attainment of the development's objectives.
This paper presents a framework where data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to assess the efficiency of expenditure in education and health sectors. More specifically, this paper assesses efficiency and seeks to establish a link between difference in efficiency level across countries and policy conditions. The data are used for a sample of member states of organization of the Islamic conference (OIC) over the 2000-20005 period.
The findings show that under 5 year old mortality rates, malnourishment prevalence and immunization rates are the main determinants of deficiency in health sector of sample countries. Moreover, enrolment ratio, more specifically in secondary school, is the major factor that affects public spending efficiency in the education sector. In addition, results show that because of international aid programs, on average, countries in Africa are more efficient than those in Asia and Middle East.
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2010)
Abstract
In this paper we have studied the trend and bias of technological change in Iran’s cement industry by dual cost function approach. This approach is useful to estimation of factors demand structure with regard to changes of factors price and technological situation. We estimated a translog cost function in addition to equations system of cost share, using Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equation (SURE) approach during the period 1355-1385. The results show that the rate of technological change has been -1.12 percent during the studied years. It means that there is a decrease in rate of cost of productive units along with time. Furthermore, the results indicate that technological change has been biased towards the use of more energy.
Volume 10, Issue 2 (7-2010)
Abstract
The natural disasters decrease the savings through reducing the government savings rate. However, the resultant disasters effect on total savings depends on the private savings changes.
In this paper, the impact of natural disasters on total savings is estimated using the data over the period 1973-2006. An Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) technique is used to estimate the empirical model.
The results confirm that natural disasters raise the average propensity to savings in Iran. Moreover, the coefficient of error correction term indicates that 69 percent of the disequilibrium is corrected immediately, i.e. in the next year.
Volume 10, Issue 3 (10-2010)
Abstract
This paper aims to evaluate the relationship between exports diversification and productivity for nine Iranian manufacturing industries using a panel data approach. Empirical results indicate that productivity and exports have similar trends over the period considered in this study. Indicators such as capital-labor ratio in sub-sectors of the manufacturing and the real effective exchange rate have positive effects on productivity. Exports diversity index has also a positive and significant impact on productivity such that one percentage change in this index increases productivity by 1.8 percent. The effect of trade liberalization on manufacturing productivity is negative and negligible, implying that, to promote productivity, policymakers should consider other fundamental and institutional factors in addition to the foreign trade.
Volume 11, Issue 2 (8-2011)
Abstract
This article analyses the effects of foreign exchange commitment and exchange rate unification policies on Iran’s non-oil exports during the last three decades. In addition, the effects of these policies on non-oil exports have empirically been estimated. For this purpose, an export supply model was estimated using the econometrics technique of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and reliable Iranian data for the last three decades.
The empirical results of this paper shows that during the entire period of 1977-2008, foreign exchange commitment policy has caused non-oil exports to decline, but exchange rate unification policy has had positive effects on Iran’s non-oil exports.
Volume 12, Issue 3 (Autumn 2012 2012)
Abstract
The weak axiom of profit maximization (WAPM) is used to analyze the optimization behavior of 18 Iranian banks within 10 years (2000-2009). In general the banks in the Iranian economy can be divided into 2 groups, state and privately owned banks. Nonparametric nature of this test allows us to study the profit maximization behavior of the firms without the need for any assumption on functional form of underlying technology. The WAPM is checked under 2 assumptions: constant technology and nonregressive technological change. Although most of the banks violate the deterministic WAPM test, testing the stochastic WAPM with measurement error and believing in existence of at least 1 percent measurement error in data, show the behavior of the privately owned banks and one of the state owned banks is consistent with WAPM under nonregressive technological change assumption. Although the behavior of the state owned banks is consistent as well if one believes in 5 percent measurement error, the difference leads to this conclusion that performance of the state development policies and objectives by the state owned banks has been deviated from profit maximization behavior.
Volume 14, Issue 3 (11-2024)
Abstract
The purpose of this research was to explore the process of sensemaking of challenging constructive deviant behaviors among the employees of a public organization, within the framework of the constructivist design of grounded theory. These are the behaviors that challenge the existing norms of the organization and break the rules to help the organization. For this purpose, in-depth interviews were conducted with 15 employees of Vali-Asr University of Rafsanjan who were invited to cooperate through theory sampling. Data analysis was done during three stages of primary, focused and theory coding. According to the findings, it was concluded that due to the deficiencies in the laws and regulations, their implementers suffer from identity crisis. They are forced to choose their philosophy of ethics in practice and in this regard choose result-orientation in order to regain their identity by serving the organization, even if they violate the law and regulations. In this way they call for deviance. Meanwhile, social learning of constructive deviant behaviors in the organization is effective in their deviant actions. Perceived social approval has an effect in reducing cognitive dissonance following controversial constructive deviant behavior by the actor. The increase in organizational productivity and the satisfaction of clients were recognized as other consequences of the challenging constructive deviant behaviors in the studied organization.
Volume 15, Issue 2 (Summer 2011)
Abstract
A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a specific amount of an asset at a particular price on a stipulated future date. A futures contract is a standardized exchange-traded agreement. One of the most important challenges about the validity of futures contracts is that if such contracts are kind of gambling. It seems that by using legal doctrines, judicial procedure and legislation development, English Law passed the mentioned challenge. In this paper, first, we investigate the approach under which English Law encounters this issue and the elements by which a transaction is a kind of gambling in Islamic Law. Then, regarding distinct differences between futures and gambling contracts, we try to eliminate the challenge and justify such transactions. We found that: first, gambling is similar to futures contracts from the viewpoint of encountering the risk; while, gambling is the creation of risk in order to risk; taking risk in futures market is encountering the risks that necessarily exist in free market economy. Second, in gambling, the base of gaining profit is probability, chance and random, and what a gambler gains is the speculative gain; yet, the base of gaining profit in futures contracts is market analysis. Third, gambling contracts' concept includes win-lose, which is one of the elements of gambling contracts in Islamic Law; while, another profit is hidden in futures contracts whose concept differs from win-lose. This concept is Hedging or Speculation. In fact, futures markets are risk transfer systems. Forth, the framework of activity in gambling is playing a game. However, a futures market is a place for combining analyses in order to develop an economic financial activity rather than a place for gaming. Finally, we can justify futures contracts in Islamic Law by passing the challenge of being considered as a gambling.
Volume 17, Issue 2 (Summer 2017 2017)
Abstract
Economic theories suggest that increasing uncertainty induces households to reduce the growth of their consumption expenditure. This study aims to examine how to change the consumption expenditure of Iranian households due to uncertainty in government expenditure. To do this, using annual data for 1978-2012, first, a measure for government expenditure uncertainty was introduced, and then its effects on household consumption behavior were analyzed. The results indicate that uncertainty in government expenditure has a negative and significant effect on growth of household consumption expenditure. On the other hand, the effect of government spending uncertainty on consumption expenditure of durable goods is positive. In other words, Iranian households in increasing uncertainty settings face with the growth of consumption spending on durable goods. Thus, the government needs to create transparency in fiscal policy, to reduce policy uncertainty for households as far as possible.
Volume 17, Issue 4 (Winter 2018)
Abstract
Expansion of financial markets including capital market is a key factor in increasing investment, which affects significantly the economic growth and development. Any change in monetary policy will influence real sector of economy, prices and returns on stocks. The performance of stock market is of considerable effect on macro economy, and plays substantial role in the monetary policy transmission process. In this paper, we examine the effect of monetary policy on the stock market using a five-variable structural vector auto-regressive model by applying monthly data during March 2005 to March 2013. The results suggest that the monetary policy through liquidity and loans directed to private sector is of significantly positive effect on the stock market index. As a result, expansionary monetary policy by increasing the liquidity and loans directed to the private sector improves stock market general index. In addition, changes in monetary policy through exchange rate and real interest rate have significant and negative effects on this index. The contractionary monetary policy through interest rate improves stock market index. Finally, shocks resulting from changes in exchange rate exacerbate the monetary policy in the short term, which in turn worsen the stock market index.
Volume 19, Issue 125 (July 2022)
Abstract
Packaging is important for the protection, storage, and hygienic handling of food as well as raw materials, particularly against oxidation and microbial spoilage. Land filling of non-degradable waste caused by plastic packaging of food is one of the most major challenges in the world, which the use of natural and degradable biopolymers, including polysaccharides, is recommended to overcome this problem. Chitosan is a polysaccharide utilized in the structure of biodegradable edible films. The main limitation associated with chitosan-based films is poor mechanical properties, high water solubility, and water vapor permeability. The objective of this study was to improve the physicochemical performance of chitosan-based films. Chitosan-based films were prepared with guar dialdehyde in various blending ratios. The FTIR spectrum of composite film displayed a peak at 1683 cm-1 which approved the successful covalent interaction between the amino groups of chitosan and the aldehyde groups of guar dialdehyde. The optimal chitosan-dialdehyde guar gum film had the lowest solubility (20.03 %), lowest water vapor permeability (3.07 Ð 10-10 gmm / hmm2Pa), and the highest tensile strength (48.05 MPa) compared with other films. Moreover, the diameters of the inhibition zones for the films containing 10% rosemary extract against E. coli and S. aureus bacteria were 12.75 ± 0.07, and 20.55 ± 0.21 mm, respectively. Therefore, the results showed that the developed chitosan- guar dialdehyde film containing rosemary extract can be considered as a suitable alternative in an active fresh food packaging systems.
Volume 21, Issue 3 (Autumn 2021 2021)
Abstract
Dependency of Iranian Economy on oil revenues has provided conditions for imposing further sanctions on Iran. One way for Iran to get rid of sanctions is to sell its oil in currencies other than US dollar. In this regard, this article evaluates the risks for Iran if it, in selling oil, substitutes US dollar with currencies of its oil importing countries. We firstly apply Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) models on Yuan and Rupee data for the period of 1990:01-2019:05 as well as on Euro data for the period of 1999:01-2019:05 and then based on the estimated models, forecast losses and gains for the period of 2019:06-2021:12 if Iran sells oil to China, India and Europe and receive payments respectively in Yuan, Rupee and Euro. Our forecasts indicate that selling oil to India and China and receiving oil revenue in Rupee and Yuan respectively will significantly decrease value of oil exports in range of 5-23 percent due to very likely devaluation of these currencies vs. the US dollar. Therefore, Iran must firstly use in its oil transaction relevant diplomacy with its oil importing countries, requesting them to share in risks of devaluation of their currencies vs. US dollar. Secondly, as a particular example, this article shows that political decisions may bring in economic consequences for the country. Therefore, Iranian authorities are expected to consider economic consequences of their political decisions more seriously and with sufficient transparency.
Volume 22, Issue 3 (Autumn 2022 2022)
Abstract
Regarding the importance of knowledge-based capital in the modern economy, this paper aims to measure this kind of capital in Iran’s manufacturing sector using the exploratory factor analysis method. Data include active firms in Iran’s manufacturing sector at the 2-digit ISIC level over the period 2002-2018. The results indicate the existence of a factor in the manufacturing firms with a positive and increasing trend of knowledge-based capital accumulation. The findings also show that the accumulation of this type of capital in Iran’s manufacturing sector is in the early stages of development and highly depends on the literate labor force.
Volume 29, Issue 1 (3-2022)
Abstract
In this study, the effect of employees' perception of customer delight through work engagement on value co-creation of employees of travel agencies in Tehran is investigated. The statistical population is the front line employees of travel agencies in Tehran. The sampling method was also convenience non-random. Research hypotheses were tested using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Findings show that employees' perception of customer delight has an effect on job engagement through the variables of vigor, dedication and absorption. Work engagement also has an effect on value co-creation through these variables.Based on the results of the research model, it is suggested that travel agencies try to improve the level of employees' perception and work engagement in order to improve the level of organizational value co-creation capabilities.
